Upcoming Government Reports & Holidays
| 1-Nov | CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT | 10:00 AM |
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2-Nov
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EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT
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8:30 AM
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2-Nov
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MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES…
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10:00 AM
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2-Nov
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INTERNATIONAL TRADE REPORT
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8:30 AM
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2-Nov
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US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SE…
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8:30 AM
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6-Nov
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ELECTION DAY
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9-Nov
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MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES & IN…
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10:00 AM
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9-Nov
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WHOLESALE TRADE REPORT
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9-Nov
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PRODUCER PRICE INDEX REPORT
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8:30 AM
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11-Nov
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VETERAN’S DAY
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12-Nov
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VETERAN’S DAY (OBSERVED)
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14-Nov
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT
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8:30 AM
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15-Nov
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ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL & FOOD…
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8:30 AM
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15-Nov
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MANUFACTURING AND TRADE: INVENTORIES &…
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10:00 AM
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20-Nov
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NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION REPORT
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8:30 AM
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21-Nov
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ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS
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8:30 AM
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22-Nov
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THANKSGIVING DAY
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23-Nov
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DAY AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY
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28-Nov
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NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES REPORT
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10:00 AM
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28-Nov
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ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT
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8:30 AM
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28-Nov
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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REPORT
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8:30 AM
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Key Events That Moved the Market in October 2018
The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.
Above: S&P 500 Index Daily Chart from October 1 to October 24, 2018
October 1
- US stocks opened sharply higher than previous session after a last-minute NAFTA revision had been settled between US and Canada; now called USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), the deal removes the risks of tariffs from around $1.2 trillion worth of goods annually.
- PMI came in within consensus range at 55.6.
October 2
- Political and economic tensions within the eurozone contributed to slight weakness in US stock indices.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the 60th Annual National Association for Business Economics meeting in Boston in which he reiterated the Fed’s policy of gradualist moderation and reminded everyone that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
October 3
- Indices opened slightly higher following a rebound in European equity markets as Italy had indicated it was open to reducing its budget deficits, projecting that its deficit would fall to 2.2% of GDP by next year.
- Jobs report showed an upswing as private sector jobs increased 230,000, well above consensus expectations of 179,000.
- A 14-year high in business activity led to a high ISM Non-Mfg figure of 61.6, above the expected 58.0.
October 4
- Markets were digesting Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday at the Atlantic Festival in Washington, in which he had mentioned that the Fed was willing to push above the “neutral rate of interest,” a move that had historically signaled oncoming bear markets.
- US indices declined further as Treasury yields increased to their highest levels since 2011.
- Jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 207,000 in the last week of September, a greater decline than economists had expected.
October 5
- US nonfarm payrolls came in weak at 134,000, below expectations of 180,000, and marking the smallest gain of the year.
- The unemployment level was down to 3.7% and average hourly earnings were up 0.3% and within analyst expectations.
- US consumer credit came in at a strong $20.1 billion from the expected $15 billion.
October 8
- European markets were much lower as Germany’s industrial report came in weaker than expected.
- China’s Shanghai composite fell 3.7%–its largest one-day drop since Feb–due to fears that the US-China trade may significantly slow down its economic growth.
- US indices rose despite current geopolitical issues.
October 9
- The IMF cut global growth forecasts due to international trade concerns.
- US indices, despite a slight decline remained more or less unchanged.
October 10
- The S&P plunged -3.3% to 2785.68 and the Dow dropped more than -831 points.
- Trump blames the Federal Reserve for the crash, stating that its rate hikes are “out of control.”
- Fed responds stating that it plans to continue hiking rates and that politics will not influence its monetary policy decisions.
October 11
- Global equity markets continued their sell-off due to the concern of rising US interest rates.
- China’s Shanghai composite fell by 5.2%.
- US CPI increased by 0.1%, below an expected 0.2% increase.
- Jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 214,000, some of this elevated by Hurricane Michael.
- US stocks continued in their sell-off.
October 12
- US markets recover from their largest two-day declines since February.
- US import prices grew 0.5% last month, above the 0.3% that economists had expected.
- Consumer sentiment came in at 99.0, a slightly less favorable view in personal finances from an expected 99.5.
October 15
- US indices dipped lower as tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia began to escalate.
- US retail sales came increased by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.7% gain.
October 16
- US indices are higher due to strong earnings in the banking sector.
- Industrial production increased by .3%, higher than the expected .2%.
- Housing market index showed that optimism among home builders picked, with a figure of 68, a point higher than the anticipated 67.
- JOLTS reported that job openings swelled by 7.136 million from the expected 6.905 million.
- Today’s rally was to be the strongest in 6 months following the largest drop since February.
October 17
- Weak corporate earnings growth caused the broader market to continue its tumble.
- Housing starts fell by 5.3% to 1.201 million from the expected 1.216 million.
- Market is expecting the FOMC minutes which are scheduled to be released at 2pm ET.
October 18
- Following yesterday’s FOMC minutes, which signaled further hawkishness, US indices fell, as the Fed signaled more interest rate hikes.
- Jobless claims decreased by 5,000, coming in at a seasonally adjusted 210,000 in the week ending Oct 13.
- On the positive side of things, over 84% of the S&P companies that have reported earnings to date have beaten analyst expectations.
October 19
- Existing home sales report showed that housing demand is flat with sales of existing homes falling by 3.4% in September to 5.150 million, well below consensus of 5.300 million.
October 22
- Stocks drifting lower despite no major economic news or reports.
October 23
- US indices opened and fell lower due to a number of factors such as China’s slowing economy and various other concerns of a geopolitical nature.
- Nevertheless, today marked a recovery period for the US stock market, yet well below the previous day’s close.
- Trader sentiment seems to be converging on the notion that the Fed is hiking rates too quickly but are hopeful that 2019 may be less hawkish.
October 24
- Stocks fell led by AT&T and tech stocks.
- New Home Sales report was unfavorable, coming in well below consensus at 553k whereas 625k was expected.